Download the Q1 2026 U.S. Economic Update
In Partnership with FTR Transportation Intelligence
See What Economic Growth Really Means for the Trucking Industry in 2026
The United States (U.S.) freight economy entered 2026 under highly unusual conditions, after a 43-day federal government shutdown disrupted the release of critical economic data and left businesses operating with incomplete, delayed, or distorted signals. This report cuts through that uncertainty. The Q1 2026 U.S. Economic Update delivers a clear, grounded assessment of where the economy truly stands, what changed beneath the surface in late 2025, and what those shifts mean for freight, transportation, and supply chain decision-makers.
What's inside the update:
- Context for Missing and Skewed Economic Data: See how the government shutdown affected key indicators like unemployment and consumer price index (CPI), and how to interpret trends without them;
- Insight into Freight-Relevant vs. Service-Driven Growth: Learn why strong GDP doesn’t automatically translate to strong trucking demand, and where freight-generating activity truly stands;
- Analysis of Revised Industrial Activity Estimates: Get clarity on one of the most consequential updates to recent economic data, and what it signals for production, freight volumes, and capacity planning; and
- A Practical Outlook for 2026: Separate short-term distortions from meaningful trends that will shape transportation demand in the months ahead.
Get the clarity you need to navigate uncertainty, anticipate shifts, and make smarter decisions for 2026 and beyond. Get your Q1 2026 U.S. Economic Update today.
* This update has been written and prepared by Avery Vise of FTR Transportation Intelligence
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Avery Vise has closely studied the transportation industry for nearly 40 years as an editor, analyst, and researcher, including more than 25 years dedicated specifically to the trucking industry. Currently, he is vice president of trucking for FTR Transportation Intelligence, which specializes in forecasting and data analysis in freight transportation. He serves as FTR’s chief analyst for trucking-related market data and insights concerning truck freight demand, capacity, rates, and regulatory impacts.
Vise is the principal author of FTR’s monthly Trucking Update report and contributes to the firm’s Shippers Update and Truck and Trailer Outlook services. He leads the weekly Spot Market Insights analysis, hosts the weekly Trucking Market Update podcast, and is a primary contributor to FTR’s Weekly Transportation Update publication. Another major focus is tracking trucking fleets’ driver and truck capacity and leading client projects to size markets for specific types of trucking operations. Vise also conducts regular webinars for clients and is a frequent speaker at conferences.
Prior to joining FTR in 2017, Avery was principal of his own transportation consulting and market research practice. Previously, he served as head of trucking market research and analysis for a media organization and as chief editor of a trucking industry magazine. Vise started his career at McGraw-Hill as an editor covering the commercial aviation industry before shifting his focus to the trucking industry in 1998.
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About the Quarterly Updates
NMFTA is committed to providing valuable insights to the freight industry through its quarterly economic updates. These updates aim to illuminate lesser-known trends across the broader freight market that could potentially impact businesses. Additionally, they offer interpretations of current trucking industry trends, helping businesses understand the underlying factors shaping their experiences.
Through this initiative, the NMFTA strives to empower businesses with comprehensive and relevant market intelligence, enabling them to navigate the dynamic and often complex freight landscape with greater confidence.