NMFTA Bi-Annual
Regulatory Update

New Administration to Take Wheel of Government in 2025

The election of Donald Trump will bring a new Administration to Washington, D.C. when he takes the oath of office at noon on January 20, 2025, and becomes the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms.  

The President-Elect’s path to victory in November was made possible by winning swing states won by President Biden in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, and the blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  

The transition to a new Administration began in earnest soon after Election Day, with President-Elect Trump announcing his nominees for his cabinet and other key posts throughout the federal government. 

We will soon know how much deference the new President will be given to populate his Administration when the Senate, which will be under Republican control, gavels in to open the 119 Congress on January 3. The Senate maintains its advice and consent role over Executive Branch nominations, but how much influence individual Republican senators will want to exert over the new President’s nominations remains to be seen. Already, however, there is evidence that the Senate will still exercise its prerogatives over cabinet-level nominees, with the President-Elect’s first choice for attorney general bowing out before the confirmation process even began as it became obvious that the votes to confirm him would not materialize.

A New Policy Agenda 

Taxes: On the policy front, the incoming Administration will focus early attention on extending key portions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, passed during the first Trump term, that are set to expire in 2025. Of importance to the trucking industry is preservation of the 21% corporate tax rate, which has stimulated economic activity and strengthened America’s competitiveness, and maintaining the ability for businesses to immediately expense 100% of the cost of machinery and equipment purchases, which not only is critical for capital-intensive industries like trucking, but will also encourage the purchase of cleaner, more fuel-efficient equipment, offering a better path to reduced carbon emissions than rigid, one-size-fits-all environmental mandates.  

The effort to repeal the 12% excise tax on heavy trucks may also have new life. This tax is the highest excise tax levied on any product in the country and could add $15,000 to $30,000 to the cost of new heavy trucks, trailers, semitrailer chassis, and tractors for highway use. This upward pressure on equipment costs discourages trucking companies from adding newer, more fuel-efficient trucks to their fleets. 

Environment: The new Administration’s overall environmental agenda is expected to diverge sharply from the outgoing Biden Administration. Former Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-NY), the President-Elect’s pick to helm the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), is more likely to seek collaboration with the trucking industry on emissions policy, and to resist top-down directives or novel legal interpretations that would, for example, force the trucking industry to adopt electric-only vehicles before the technology and supporting infrastructure is readily available, dependable, and cost effective. 

The outgoing Administration sought to force state departments of transportation and metropolitan planning organizations to measure greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the highway system and set declining targets, which the trucking industry argued fell outside congressional intent. Additionally, the Administration sought to establish strict emissions rules for heavy-duty vehicles beginning in model years 2028-2032 that would be unattainable if enforced.

This Executive Branch overreach was all part of an overall strategy to dramatically increase the number of electric vehicles on roads and highways in the next decade. But according to a study by the Clean Freight Coalition, of which the National Motor Freight Transportation Association, Inc. (NMFTA)^™ is a member, it would require nearly $1 trillion in infrastructure investment alone to achieve full electrification of the U.S. truck fleet.

There are practical implications to forcing the trucking industry to go electric before the technology is proven. In a July hearing of the House Oversight and Accountability Committee that featured testimony from EPA Administrator Michael Regan, Rep. Nick Langworthy (R-NY) pointed to a failed experiment to use electric vehicles for garbage removal and snowplows in New York City, and said his community of Buffalo needs dependable heavy-duty trucks for snow removal, a task that is jeopardized by EPA’s attempts to force industry to go all-electric.   

NMFTA remains a willing partner in the effort to reduce GHG emissions and we look forward to working closely with the new Administration in achieving this goal, but any implementation plan must acknowledge existing technological and cost constraints.  

Labor: We can also anticipate a new approach on labor. The outgoing Administration pursued policies that made it more difficult for employers like trucking companies to work with independent contractors, that weakened the franchise business model and eroded the right to enter private contracts, and that sought to greatly expand the types of workers who would qualify for overtime pay. In November, a federal court in Texas blocked the implementation of the expanded overtime rule, and it is unlikely the new White House would seek its revival. 

U.S. Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR), who lost her November re-election bid, will be charged with forging the new labor agenda as President-Elect Trump’s choice for Secretary of Labor. The trucking industry will be monitoring the confirmation process closely. Chavez-DeRemer has backing from Teamsters Union leadership and is a supporter of the Protecting Right to Organize (PRO) Act, legislation that would remove barriers to union organizing (such as the right to a secret ballot in a union election).  

This year was full of labor headaches that upended the supply chains and put pressure on already strained trucking industry resources. An October strike by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) brought operations to a halt at ports on the East and Gulf Coasts, which delayed shipments and led to increased congestion at West Coast ports as shippers sought new entry points to the United States.  Union members agreed to suspend their work stoppage, but their extended contract will end January 15, 2025. Canada was not immune to its own strikes, with a freight rail strike and a West Coast port strike tying up shipments to and from the U.S. 

Trade: On trade, the President-Elect says he wants to aggressively impose higher tariffs on goods imported into the United States, which could disrupt the supply chains and put upward pressure on costs for logistics providers and consumers. The President-Elect has said he intends to pursue a formal review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the successor to the North American Free Trade Agreement that he negotiated in his first term. But he has also said that goods exported by Mexico and Canada to the United States could be a target of his tariff policy, which could affect the thousands of commercial trucks that cross the borders each day.  

Former Congressman Tapped to be Secretary of Transportation

The person responsible for executing the new President’s transportation agenda will be former Rep. Sean Duffy (R-WI), who has been nominated to be the Secretary of Transportation. 

His portfolio is daunting and stretches far beyond surface transportation. He will not only oversee highway agencies critical to the trucking industry like the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) and take on efforts to bolster the trucking workforce and to improve job satisfaction by expanding access to safe truck parking, but he’ll also have responsibility for overseeing the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), the Maritime Administration (MA), and more. 

The early reaction to his nomination was positive on Capitol Hill and his confirmation process should be relatively tame compared to some other nominees.  

Grand Old Party to Control House and Senate, but Margins Will Remain Tight

Republicans will control the majorities in both the Senate and House, giving the Grand Old Party (GOP) a hold on Capitol Hill and the White House.  Sen. John Thune (R-SD) will serve as the majority leader after being elected to the post by his caucus colleagues. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) will be the minority leader. In the House, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) will remain in that role and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) will remain minority leader.  

Despite the Republicans’ majority control in both chambers, the Trump White House agenda is not guaranteed smooth sailing. Although Republicans will hold 53 seats in the new Senate, which is enough to advance bills even if more moderate senators like Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) vote with Democrats, the Senate filibuster rule is likely to remain in place. That means that for most bills it will take 60 votes to cut off debate and move on to a final up-or-down vote. The President may be forced to rely on the budget reconciliation process to pass parts of his agenda, which allows the 60-vote rule to be bypassed, but only if the subject matter affects spending and revenue, which is determined by the Senate parliamentarian.  

In the House, the Republican margin will again be slim, meaning leadership can afford to lose very few members. The Republican advantage will be put to the test early on as three House members have been tapped for posts in the new Administration, leaving their seats vacant until their respective states can organize special elections. 

At a committee level, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will become chairman of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, a powerful committee with jurisdiction over transportation policy and that will take the lead on the next surface transportation reauthorization bill, which authorizes budget authority for federal aid highway programs and extends the Highway Trust Fund. Other committees, including Banking, Finance, and Environment and Public Works will influence the final bill, but Cruz has been vocal about reining in infrastructure spending and regularly pushed back against the Biden White House’s transportation environmental agenda. 

In the House, the new House Transportation and Infrastructure (T&I) Committee chairman remains undecided.  

Trucking Items on To-Do List Before the Year Ends

In December, Congress will once again scramble to pass a spending package to avoid a government shutdown. Republican leaders must decide whether to pass legislation to fund the government for all of fiscal year (FY) 2025 or whether to pass another continuing resolution (CR), a stopgap measure that would maintain FY 2024 spending levels into January 2025.  

Adopting a CR would allow Republicans to exert greater influence over a final FY 2025 agreement by leveraging their new majority control of Congress and the White House, but that strategy could be tricky due to House vacancies and an already crowded agenda for a new Administration that would prefer not to get bogged down in a spending debate. 

Under either scenario—a full FY 2025 deal or another short-term CR—key trucking industry priorities are positioned for passage, including on issues like streamlining apprenticeship programs, expanding truck parking, and reducing cargo theft, which is a growing concern for the trucking industry. Rep. David Valadao (R-CA), who won a close reelection race in November, has introduced the Safeguarding Our Supply Chains Act, which aims to establish a Supply Chain Fraud and Theft Task Force to address the significant increase in cargo theft and other forms of supply chain fraud. More than 900 incidents of cargo theft were documented in the first quarter of 2024 alone. 

NMFTA will continue to work with congressional leaders and trucking industry supporters to ensure the provisions important to our industry are reflected in any final legislative agreement. 

Bill to Streamline Transportation Security Screening Ready to Vote

The Transportation Security Screening Modernization Act, a bill to eliminate redundant fees and background checks for essential supply chain workers, has been passed by the Senate and is ready for consideration by the House before the end of the calendar year.  

 The bill allows workers to apply existing valid background checks to multiple Transportation Security Administration (TSA) managed credentialing programs, such as the Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) and Hazardous Materials Endorsement (HME) programs. By eliminating duplicative screenings and harmonizing these programs, the bill would codify formal recommendations made by the Government Accountability Office dating back to 2007.

The bill has strong bipartisan support, which should deliver a major win for the trucking industry before Congress closes out 2024.